Historian Allan Lichtman predicts that Trump might not win

• Historian Allan Lichtman is known for his election predictions.
• Biden has secured crucial keys to the White House.
• Current polls are unfavorable for Biden.

Historian Allan Lichtman is known for accurately predicting presidential election results for 40 years using his 13-point Keys to the White House algorithm.

He has declared that this year he does not expect Donald Trump to be happy about what he has to say.

Lichtman also warned about the unpredictability of this year’s election.

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Lichtman has noted that the United States faces its first presidential rematch since the 1950s, with Joe Biden and Trump as favorites for the Democratic and Republican nominations.

In a conversation with The U.S. Sun, he recalled that he received a photograph signed by Trump after predicting his surprising victory in 2016.

However, this time, when asked if history would repeat itself, Lichtman said, «I doubt it, but you never know.»

The historian has pointed out that 2024 remains unpredictable, though he stressed that 2020 was also unpredictable.

Trump may not win the 2024 election

Allan Lichtman has not yet made a definitive prediction for this year, but he alluded to areas where Biden has an advantage, noting that he has correctly predicted the results of presidential elections since 1984.

According to Lichtman, Biden has secured crucial keys to the White House, although he warns that there are still challenges that could influence the results.

Lichtman notes that his White House keys consist of 13 true or false statements — if five or fewer statements are false, the party in power is predicted to win.

However, if six or more statements are false, then the incumbent president could lose the election.

The 13 Keys to the White House

The 13 keys include the following points…

«The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections compared with the previous set of elections.»

«There is no primary contest for the incumbent party nomination,» and, «The incumbent president is seeking a second term.»

«Strong short-term economy, Strong long-term economy,» and, «Major policy change enacted by current administration.»

Also, «No social unrest, No scandal, No major foreign policy or military failure, Major military or foreign policy success, Charismatic incumbent and Uncharismatic challenger.»

Challenges for the Trump campaign

Lichtman said that Biden gives the Democratic Party the best chance for winning in November.

«One of my keys is incumbency, Biden secures that. Another one of my keys is an internal party battle, Biden secures that,» he said.

«It means six of the remaining 11 keys would have to fall to predict a White House defeat,» he told The Sun.

«If Biden doesn’t run, the party loses the incumbency and the party battle key as there is no heir apparent.»

Uncertainty in the electoral panorama

Lichtman told The U.S. Sun that there is no social unrest and the Republicans have not yet attributed a scandal to Biden.

«The Republicans have been trying for years. It’s unlikely they’ll find anything,» Lichtman said.

Now, although the current polls do not look good for Biden, Lichtman emphasizes that the election will not be decided by polls alone, but by factors such as the economy and the international situation.

In summary, historian Allan Lichtman warns about the unpredictability of the November presidential election, highlighting that although Biden has key advantages, challenges remain.