Tampa Bay prepares for Hurricane Ian, the biggest storm in a century

• Tampa Bay braces for Hurricane Ian.
• The last time Tampa Bay was hit by a Category 3 or greater hurricane was October 25, 1921.
• «This is not a joke. This is a life-threatening storm surge,» officials say.

It has been more than a century since a storm like Hurricane Ian hit the Tampa Bay area, which grew from a few hundred thousand inhabitants in 1921 to more than 3 million today. Now, the port of Florida prepares for a storm not seen in a century, according to The Associated Press.

Many of those people live in low-lying neighborhoods that are highly susceptible to ravages from storm surges and flooding they have rarely experienced, which some experts say could be exacerbated by the effects of climate change.

Hurricane Ian is expected to hit hard

The problem facing the region is that storms approaching from the south, like Hurricane Ian is doing, bring huge volumes of water into shallow Tampa Bay, likely to flood homes and businesses. The adjacent Gulf of Mexico is also shallow.

«Strong persistent winds will push a lot of water into the bay and there’s nowhere for it to go, so it just builds up,» said Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Earth, Atmospheric and Marine Sciences from the University of Miami. «Tampa Bay is very surge-prone because of its orientation.»

“Life-threatening storm surge”

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a storm surge in Tampa Bay and surrounding waters of 5 to 10 feet (1.5 to 3 meters) above normal tidal conditions, and between 10 and 15 inches (12 and 25 centimeters) of rain from Hurricane Ian.

“That’s a lot of rain. That’s not going to drain out quickly,» said Cathie Perkins, director of emergency management for Pinellas County, where the cities of St. Petersburg and Clearwater are located. «This is not a joke. This is a life-threatening storm surge.”

Evacuation orders begin to be issued in Tampa Bay

Area authorities began issuing evacuation orders Monday for a wide swath of Tampa, with the St. Petersburg area soon to follow. Evacuations could affect 300,000 people or more in Hillsborough County alone.

Governor Ron DeSantis stressed the vulnerability of the region at a press conference Monday afternoon in Largo, Florida. «Clearly when you look at the Tampa Bay area, one of the reasons we fear storms is because of the sensitivity of this area and the fragility of this area,» DeSantis said.

Hurricane Ian could put all of Tampa Bay at risk

The last time Tampa Bay was hit by a Category 3 or greater hurricane was on October 25, 1921. That hurricane did not have an official name, but it is known locally as the Tarpon Springs storm, named after the location where it made landfall.

The storm surge caused by that hurricane, which is estimated to be a category 3 with winds of up to 207 km/h (129 mph), reached 3.3 meters (11 feet). At least eight people were killed and damage was estimated at $5 million at the time. Now, the tourist region known for its beaches has grown tremendously with waterside residences and businesses. Hurricane Ian would put all that development at risk.